Tuesday, 23 February 2010

The dancing elephant needs support for some more time!

The global recession which started hitting countries from Oct 2008, was a blessing in disguise for the Indian corporates. The world started looking India from different angle. The traditionally conservative banking system was appreciated world over. The regulators shared limelight like never before. It was difficult time but, it brought a lifetime opportunity for Indian behemoths. They became more cautious. They started cutting on cost, deferring capital expenditure, realigning their business and consolidating their operations.

The Indian government provided stimulus package in installments. Rate cuts, plan -unplan expenditure of $60Bn, cut in central VAT, incentives to export industries, refund of service tax paid by exporters to foreign agents, Incentives for loans on housing, Limits under the credit guarantee scheme for small enterprises doubled, Export duty on iron ore fines eliminated, Export duty on lumps for steel industry reduced to five percent.
Largely speaking, Indian economy was never hit by recession. We never neeeded a stimulus package of any sort. But the aggressive move by the government ensured that the interest of SMEs is maintained. The exporters are not hurt significantly due to falling demand and delay in payments. Withdrawal of funds by FII also created a credit crunch situation. India clocked a growth of 6%-7% in the midst of adversity around the world. This was possible due to strong and growing rural demand. The consumer spending has been increasing on month-on-month basis.

No doubt the booster hasnt come for free. The fiscal deficit is close to 12% of GDP. Rate cuts and incentives to boost growth has resulted in inflation. Government has to play a balancing act between maintaining growth and containing the inflation. But, if the stimulus package is rolled back now, it would create a recession like situation in India. Infrastructure projects worth billions are underway. They need extended incentives. Large projects might get delayed and cause cost overruns. Various sectors are still in consolidation phase. The results declared are volatile. Industries are yet to experience stability.

fOoD fOr ThOuGhT: The dancing elephant needs stimulus support till 2nd quarter of the FY2010-11. We are targetting a growth of 8%+ now. So if roll back is done in phased manner, we will have our average growth of 6.5% without hurting any industry. Untimely removal of ladder might enforce few to fall.

Thursday, 11 February 2010

Riding on time machine!

After some heavy posts, here is a lighter one...

I had a bitter fight yesterday with very close friend of mine. Who's mistake? I guess nobody to blame. What will happen next? After every night there come beautiful sun rays, same way, we will be rocking, again! Why I am sharing this? To ponder on something that did stike while I was in the middle of fight.

As the heated conversation was going on, I suddenly remembered that in the morning only I read that "There could be a clash today. Stay away from arguments." But still I just carried on to hit a dead end, me standing alone. So, do I read such things everyday? And does this incident make me believer of what is published? To begin with, I dont believe in the fortunes published. Infact, I dont follow anything that is written in newspapers. Anything that is in the public eye, is to make the public blind about the truth. Though I do try to read between the lines. Lot of spaces! which makes more sense to me than words. The spaces tell the complete story and express the unsaid meaning.

I have seen people reading so called predictions religiously everyday in newspapers. That is the first thing they do! And on top of it, they do postpone their already set plans if that is not advisable according to the newspaper! What crap! Its your life, you decide, you do. The world is divided into twelve zodiac signs and predictions are made that only these things will happen everyday. I am not doubting on Zodiac sign's sanctity or existence, it evolved out of some science. But following blindly what some Baba says every morning on television is far from my understanding. All the channels and not to forget NEWS channels also are in the forefront. When newspapers can do that, why not news channels!

In the race are all mobile service providers, email providers, Facebook with Dhongibaba! I liked the name though, very apt. Dhongibaba!

fOoD fOr ThOuGhT: If predicting future was so simple and easy task, we would not have been doing lot of things, that we do otherwise! Future is in the present. If we indulge in looking at whats going to happen in future, we will miss the present and it will also make us believe to make changes in the past!

Saturday, 6 February 2010

"Attack the leaders"

Why do you see Amitabh Bachchan being attacked again and again by politicians? Why MNS drags him is meaningless issues? Why SRK is attacked on his IPL selection statement which wasnt contradictory to patriotism? And at the same time, why SRK has accused ShivSena of dirty politics? Why only Indians are attacked in Australia? Why at the global level US, Russia, Pakistan, Iraq are found attacking India and Indian leaders again and again?

Earlier it was between Khans now it is between AB and SRK, Chetan Bhagat and 3 idiots, only Tiger woods over infidelity, Mukesh Ambani over KG basin, Tatas over Singur, Steve Jobs over iPad, n number of cases in every walk of life. If you ask Shivsena, MNS, BJP, RSS some other acronyms, "What are you fighting for?" I bet, they wont have an answer! They just want to attack anybody who has visibility and can help them in their pursuit.

In the marketing parlance it is called "Attack the leader." It is one of the easiest way to take your words to the world. Any leader in his industry/ segment is dominant. He decides the pace, direction and sets the rules and trends. When you attack a leader, you are elevating yourself close to that leader's position, temporarily. The world gives you ear. And in a subtle way your work is done. When Mamata Banerjee created issue with Tatas over Singur land, she knew, it is not worth fighting against the business behemoth. But she got the coverage, she was heard. She retracted from her stance later, is a different story. The movie My Name is Khan cannot get a better marketing than what it has got! Look at Sarkar, Gangajal or some other movies. If you look around yourself, you will find either people have mastered or are trying to master the art of attacking the leaders.

fOoD fOr ThOuGhT: When ever you find any leader getting attacked, understand the motto. Hmmm, that means if I want to get famous, I should attack some political or business figure or ideology. Hahaha... Its not a child's play. When a leader retracts, you need to be fully loaded because 100% of the times, the attacker is at fault. For you guys, if you look at everything from "attack the leader" angle, you will always find it applicable!

Monday, 1 February 2010

Be careful, you might land in trouble!

I have been on orkut since 2004, own blog since 2007, on linkedin since 2008, On facebook since 2009 and on twitter since 2009. Things have changed drastically from the orkut days to the now twitter days. I joined orkut purely out of excitment. I really didnt know what it was. What profile meant, how to use scrap book, etc. Things like album, photo comments, tagging evolved with time. I primarily used orkut to increase my friends count, write testimonials and get more testimonials! Human beings! They want to hear good about themselves everytime, all the time.

Now things have drastically changed. People express themselves more often. The status messages and tweets are the in thing. "What's on your mind?" is new phenomenon! I doubt if people actually write whats on their mind when they are writing it. It is more to suit and appeal and make a statement within the community.

The point of focus here is the headline "Inappropriate messages on social sites could get you arrested, fired, or even divorced." The statement immediately caught my attention and I rather decided not to publish my post which was on the gundagiri happening in politics and precisely Maharashtra politics. Valentine's day is around the corner and yes politicians are all charging up, to express their love towards Archies and Hallmark outlets, the CCDs, the shopping malls and innocent couples.

India’s IT Act, notified in October 2009, make status messages and Tweets admissible as electronic evidence and the onus of the posts on these accounts now rests solely on users, say cyber lawyers. Most users are blissfully ignorant that whatever they write in public domain can be produced as a proof of copy. A printout or screen shot is all that is required. Hmmm, I need to be more politically correct now.

A Gurgaon IT profesional was arrested in 2008 for posting an obscene message against Congress president Sonia Gandhi on his Orkut account. UK-based Divorce-online said in Dec09 20% of all its divorce petitions contain references to Facebook status messages. Now I dont want to make a political statement by commenting on the message on Sonia Gandhi, but how do you justify it.

fOoD fOr ThOuGhT: On one hand, you say that it is a democratic country and there is "freedom of speech". And this freedom is extensively used by our politicians openly in the media and their newspapers but when comman man tries to use it, he is suppressed. Agreed that you should avoid provoking statements but the right to express should not be suppressed. You almost made me ignore my post from posting which was on politics. Any takers?


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